Canada is the dream work destination for many folks. But a recent report released by Statistics Canada created fear in the minds of job seekers. The agency reported Canada of losing 31,200 jobs in the month of July. The figure is quite significant and can mean the downturn of economy or other serious issues. But quelling our fears comes a post from Will Dunning who is the Chief Economist for Mortgage Professionals Canada and also operates his own consulting firm.
Why the figure is not the reality
Dunning calls the figure erroneous and misleading. He puts it as an estimate and not the reality. According to him, the average rate of job creation in Canada has been around 13,300 per month. This data is a stark comparison against the information put forward by Statistics Canada. Dunning gives interesting reasons for the error made by the statistical institution.
To begin with, the sample size chosen was really small and appropriate for deriving results for whole of Canada. The size of the sample was only one third of the actual proportion of the population. Most of it (36.6%) was constituted by the three Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) of Canada – Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. So any considerable change in these areas would cause significant impact on the final figure. In reality, what is going on in the CMAs may not be applicable for other areas. They had very little presence in the survey without the ability to caste any significance. Also, according to Dunning, the CMAs have recorded an average rate of 10,800 job creations per month since 2012.
Dunning agrees that there can be highs and lows in the job market which are hard to believe. But still the difference can never be so huge like in this case. Facts cannot always be believed without questioning, specially if they feel unbelievable. The percentage of drop the data suggested is not possible in the span of one month. Statistics Canada also has the history of making another wrong estimate back in October 2015. Dunning suggests increasing the sample size in the CMAs and also including other parts of Canada to provide a better insight into the industry.